What the title says. I think there is still a long way for that to happen but i’ve been hopeful. What do you think?

  • SkyNTP@lemmy.ml
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    1 year ago

    Being on the internet used to be not cool.

    Email and www. … .com was as foreign to the mainstream as the Fediverse is to the mainstream today.

    The nerds build cool shit, the corporations chase the hot new thing to milk every last dollar out of the mainstream who want the cool new toys, and the mainstream inevitably ruins the cool new toy because they don’t understand how or why it was made in the first place.

    This is the way of human nature. It has played out on the internet since the start (and probably well before that) and it will probably play out again on the fefiverse (just look at Meta).

      • Salvo@aussie.zone
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        1 year ago

        100%, and their advertisers don’t either, however do their users have a place in the Fediverse?

        • R51@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          Of course, if they can figure out how to get past the sign in spinner buahahahaha

  • luffyuk@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Absolutely not in their current formats.

    Sign up needs to be simplified enough that your gran could do it and we need way more professional UIs. After those two things, it could happen.

    • Brandon658@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Agreed. Not sure if there is a fair and easy way for the whole “instance” user distribution but the current set up isn’t straight forward. Not to say it was difficult but my experience with it was an immediate thought of this barrier of entry is too steep. It’s unlike what most anyone has likely ever encountered. (at least knowingly.)

      Like mapping a network drive. Is it an actually difficult task? No. Can any significant portion of the general population identify what I just stated? Probably no. Sure a small percent may go on to Google that and figure it out. But in general I find it bad practice to ask that of them.

      Would it be reasonable if some algorithm handled that aspect and just default assigned people based on location, maybe a couple quick questions of their interests, and the hosts willing capacity increase rate? Plus some other factors I didn’t think of. In some text could also say you can choose from a list of instances if you so choose or just leave it as is.

      • luffyuk@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        It should automatically assign by default, but have an “advanced sign-up options” button that you can use if wanted.

  • Yote.zip@pawb.social
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    1 year ago

    It’s possible. I think the biggest obstacle is that the corporations feeding on people’s data are not going to just stand by while it happens.

  • VirtualDriver895@lemm.ee
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    1 year ago

    Right now? Absolutely not. The platform itself is insanely buggy, normies still can’t wrap their heads around federation, and the big instances are only just beginning to stabilize and take shape.

    But long term yes, I’m very bullish, and it’s for this simple fact: this is only the beginning of enshittification. All those r/NBA whiners you saw bitching on Reddit about the protests are gonna have their “leopards ate my face” moment when spez decides to start charging $14.99 a month for the privilege of subscribing to more than three subreddits at a time or some shit.

    As many have said, interest rates are high and the gravy train has stopped running. This means the only way these huge platforms with massive server costs are going to survive is by making a profit, and they can’t do that without resorting to Twitter Blue-like subscriptions.

    If people want to consoom and shitpost for free, at some point they will have to end up here in the fediverse, where the costs of running such a huge platform can be distributed among a bunch of large and medium-sized instances, which will probably be mainly funded by donations.

    I think this is the beginning of a big transition, as big as the one from web 1.0 to 2.0. And ironically it’s gonna look a lot more like the internet of old than the era of massive social media platforms.

  • Rottcodd@lemmy.ninja
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    1 year ago

    I sure as hell hope not.

    To me, that’s like looking around a great little cafe with terrific food and saying, “Do you think this could ever become McDonalds?”

    Why would I want that?

  • pinwurm@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Lemmy has a long way to go in terms of user experience before it can effectively compete with Reddit. The majority of new accounts in the last weeks have been spite users. That is, they’re here not because they love Lemmy - but because they hate Reddit.

    That’s not a bad thing, per say. It doesn’t matter how people get here. It’s more important that they have a good reason to stay.

    And the average user doesn’t care if something is federated or centralized. They just want a product that works and is simple to grasp. In my opinion, app developers are going to be the gamechanger Lemmy needs Stuff like Memmy (on the iOS app store today!), Mlem, Liftoff, Thunder are pretty much better than the official Reddit app. And that’s how most people consume content these days. When there’s no enshitification ads or microtransactions - there’s clearly going to be a winning experience.

    It’ll take time, but as more Federation communities build - the less Reddit is necessary. As well, it usually takes a long time before people start catching on that the tools they once loved have turned to into bots and spam.

    Mastodon is in it’s 7th year, and has like 8 million active users. Twitter had 200 million users by it’s 7th year. On one hand, Mastodon is the biggest Federation app. On the other, Twitter was 25x as large. Of course, Twitter is no longer the relevant “town hall” it once was - and is hemorrhaging users and respect. So who knows. It only takes a few celebrity endorsements to get countless folks switching. Who knows

    • njtrafficsignshopper@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      That is, they’re here not because they love Lemmy - but because they hate Reddit.

      Anyone remember the Digg exodus? This was exactly how Reddit got big.

      Anyway I do think it’s a little more than just hate, though. I have poked around at Lemmy before but I’m starting to take it more seriously because I actually cannot use Reddit on my phone anymore.

    • Caminsky@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      In my opinion we need to make a distinction between social networks and aggregators with forum-like experiences. Reddit is easily replaceable because sharing links is like the easiest thing to do. I started using lemmy and not planning on using reddit again. So far i have abandoned all major social media. Only use whatsapp. The internet is rotten right now, however there are so many amazing things that are not social media that we are yet to discover and for those looking for information not people, the internet still has a lot to open. Social media is a cesspool.

  • 😌😌😌stressvana@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    fuck dude I hope not. The best part of Lemmy to me is the fact that it’s not as big as the others, and what Lemmy gives me is that same feeling of freedom websites in the 2000s and early 2010s felt like they had.

  • Captain_Shakespeare@reddthat.com
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    1 year ago

    I think anyone who was around, and online, before reddit/twitter/Facebook became the consolidated social media behemoths that they are, are willing to learn something new. The before-times were replete with smaller communities where your internet handle was the only real source of continuity (and even then, only if you wanted it to be).

    But those whose ONLY experience of online discourse is the big 3? It’s a lot to adjust to. I don’t know if this is what will hit critical mass, but then, maybe that’s setting the wrong goal to begin with. Can the communities connected here be self-sustaining for a time, regardless? Definitely.

    • MileyCyrus@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      My guess this whole time is that investors want to 1) capture the Facebook/boomer/Candy Crush crowd and 2) let anyone (foreign entities) pay to peddle influence whether political or otherwise.

      Pump and dump.

      Reddit will be circling the drain after the 2024 US election, is my estimation.

  • Vipsu@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    I think there’s good chance for Lemmy and mastodon to become mainstream but I don’t they can replace their centralized counterparts. Mainly because I think that the social media in its current form is changing.

    While platforms like Reddit, Twitter, Facebook and Tiktok are likely not going anywhere for a while, each time these platforms break the trust of their users the more cracks start to form to the service that leak out users. Some of these users will look for something new, some of these users will look for alternate services, some of these users will create their own services.

    Many of these platforms rely on the attention economy, so all it really takes to make these platforms struggle is to divide that attention more and more to competitive platforms and services. This fragmentation has been happening for years now with people dividing their attention between multiple services like reddit, twitter, discord, facebook, tiktok, snapchat and whatnot. Now creating similar service for smaller audience is easier than ever and with A.I tools it’ll probably get even more easier.

    Its a bit similar to video games and live services, with competition for players attention getting more fierce by the day.

  • TALD@lemmy.fmhy.ml
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    1 year ago

    I don’t think you need to have the largest following to have great value, even lemmy as it is right now feels great. I’ll actually want to dive into comment sections compared to the endless scrolling on reddit.

    As long as there’s enough people using a platform for a variety of ideas and experience in topics, I think that’s good enough for me.

    • cjsolx@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Personally, I don’t even want Lemmy/kbin to become Reddit 2.0.

      Reddit from 10 years ago is the goal for me. Reddit has become far, far too bloated for its own good, and that line was crossed a long time ago IMO. Let’s just enjoy what we have. Let all the normies stay on Reddit, the people I wanna vibe with are here already.

      • DMmeYourNudes@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        The problem is that nitch communities won’t get populated unless a lot of people join. The league of legends sub is the largest video game sub on Reddit, and here it’s barely active at all.

      • Magiwarriorx@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        I want it to be Reddit 2.0 in the sense that I can find active communities for specific or niche interests. Before July 1, the smallest subs that I participated in to have similar communities here were ones that had ~400k subscribers on Reddit.

        The value of Reddit was never in the 1M+ communities, any content there was usually present elsewhere, and the discussions rapidly became dumpster fires. It was in the smaller dedicated subs for topics that might not have another human-centric discussion forum.

    • twistedtxb@sh.itjust.works
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      1 year ago

      I agree. A vast majority of the userbase don’t mind the countless ads on Reddit or Twitter, on even FB. I think people are leaving FB because it’s not cool anymore, not because the UE has gotten worse.

      I’m just glad that there now are smaller, more tailored for my preferences alternatives like Lemmy

    • reverie@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Yes I think about Hacker News, which isn’t technically sophisticated nor does it have a massive userbase (a little less than 1 million registered accounts).

      It manages to have a steady stream of content and an active commenting base

  • Tyr3al@feddit.de
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    1 year ago

    I don’t really think that Lemmy or Mastodon will really replace their counterparts. At least not for now. As many have already said, the federation system is too complex for many non-technical people. It would take something like a de facto standard app, that abstracts everything federation related away and make it feel like another centralised solution.

    Another point for me is the searchability of federated systems. Say you are searching for a technical problem right now, google will surely bring you to a related subreddit in just seconds. I have yet to see a Lemmy related search result.

  • Resonosity@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Reddit, in my opinion, has become mainstream due to its ability to be searched via engines such as Google. I think Lemmy would need to have that same level of discoverability if the platform should take off. I’m not sure if doing this risks Google or others threatening the platform via “embrace, extend, and extinguish”, but perhaps Lemmy needs to be accompanied by a decentralized search engine itself that can browse the entire Fediverse. I’m new to the fediverse so I’m not sure if such a software exists, but clearly I think discoverability is paramount for giving new users a reason to see Lemmy and maybe stick around

    • astral_avocado@lemmynsfw.com
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      1 year ago

      If Lemmy gets big enough, google will work on any customized scraping of the fediverse they need to add in, because it’ll be in their best interest. They might already be able to since Lemmy isn’t private for non-logged in users.

      • FrameXX@discuss.tchncs.de
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        1 year ago

        In fact as a user of one different forum I was able to witness search engines logging in as bots for better access. I know this sounds made-up, but the forum was made with/powered by Xenforo. Btw XDA forums and lot of other forums are also made with xenforo. It’s possible that xenforo has a built-in support for search indexing bots, but I don’t reaľly know if that’s the case.

  • Sparky678348@lemm.ee
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    1 year ago

    When I first started using it I did not think so. In the week or so since I’ve sort of wrapped my head around some of it, and now I think it’s certainly possible.

    The biggest hangup in my opinion is the very concept. As a normie I get to the login screen and I see that it’s asking for an instance along with a username and password. That’s scary and you’re curious what that even is, so you Google it. And that doesn’t help at all. You’re fed a very technical description that feels like a brick wall of information. It’s intimidating.

    Once you are set up on a large instance and logged into a good app, subscribed to some of your niches… Well in my experience at all clicked together pretty quickly. The only thing that’s missing from the Lemmy experience is traffic. I know there are already some pretty big communities and people are starting to say it’s too big or something, but there’s many interests of mine that are booming on Reddit that have a handful or less posts here. Naturally things take time, and I am genuinely starting to believe we’re on the way there with this platform (network of platforms?)

    • ckrius@lemmy.fmhy.ml
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      1 year ago

      The way I’ve described it to non tech friends and family is “a bunch of different reddits, all with their own subreddits, but the different reddits can all talk to each other even if you only have an account on one. Then if one reddit has stuff your reddit doesn’t want to see, your community (or just the admins) can decide to disconnect from them.” It’s worked well so far.

    • itsJoelleScott@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Yeah, maybe there could be blurb during the sign up section when selecting an instance? That being said, I didn’t know what I was doing when I first signed up for Lemmy and chose Lemmy.world without knowing choosing the largest one didn’t matter.

    • Salvo@aussie.zone
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      1 year ago

      Email and Usenet used to have the same barrier to entry, you needed someone to host and provide NNTP, POP3 and SMTP servers for you to access them. This was usually your ISP or IT department.

      Modern internet users have become so conditioned by FB, Gmail, etc to think that the only way you can access content is though one of these monolithic providers. There are some users who think that FaceBook is the internet (just like Early AOL, MSN and CompuServe users of the 90’s).

      I would like to see small ISPs provide federated instances for their subscribers, just like their email servers and the NNTP servers from days of yore. Since most independent ISP churn is triggered by word-of-mouth, it would be a great marketing platform.