Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.

  • comador @lemmy.world
    3·
    2 months ago

    Meanwhile, factually and statistically, out of all the presidential polls ever conducted, they’re only 60% correct.

    All polls are useless.

    • Lauchs@lemmy.world
      13·
      2 months ago

      You are fundamentally misunderstanding the difference between polling aggregators, like 538 and a poll.

      Though, if you really believe what you’re saying, how crazy lucky do you think, 538 must have been to get 32/35 senate races right, 417/435 house races and the presidential rave. Seeing as they repeated the performance in 2022, those lucky jerks should be going to Vegas, not working! /s