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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • Neither is particularly likely, but it being a random accident is about as likely as you actually being the person who did it.

    No? This is an insane argument.

    I found a random statistic online that a home has a 1 in 413 chance of a fire in a given year, lets round up to 1 in 1000. It may be not exactly right, but within an order of magnitude. Trump criticized this judge, any time within about a month would get people saying this- so lets say the stats are there is a 1 in 12,000 chance of any particular person’s house burning down within a month of when Trump criticizes them. But Trump doesn’t criticize just 1 person a year, lets lowball estimate he criticizes 100 people a year. So that’s a 100 in 12,000 or 1 in 120 chance that in any particular year someone Trump criticizes house will burn down within a “suspicious” amount of time. That is nowhere near impossibly low, and now if you add in all the other unlikely but bad things that could happen to them- it happening sometimes is increasingly likely.

    Now compare that with the one person writing this comment of the lowball estimate of 100 million people in America who could commit arson(again assuming it was arson).