AI Generated Summary (I’ve been expirimentign with it):
- Kamala Harris had a tough day in the forecast despite gains in national polls.
- She leads by 3.8 points nationally but has a 47.3% chance of winning the Electoral College.
- The model adjusts for convention bounce, assuming her polls are inflated.
- Harris’s numbers may improve if she maintains her current standing.
- A concern is the lack of polls showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state.
- Recent polls show Pennsylvania as a tie or slightly favoring Trump.
- Harris has a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.
- RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump may impact her in Rust Belt states.
- Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, but there’s speculation about Josh Shapiro.
Yeah, I think people confuse win probabilities with polling percentages.
If a pollster predicted that ten races each had a Democratic win probability of 70%, and the Democrats won all ten of those races, that prediction would be wrong—as wrong as if the Republicans won six of the races.