• NotAnotherLemmyUser@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    8
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    4 months ago

    In most cases, it’s a slam dunk win unless things went really wrong. (say a pandemic)

    I think people are severely overestimating how much of an impact being an incumbent actually has with the final results. In smaller elections this definitely has a big impact, but in the entirety of the US history we’ve only had 27 presidents run for reelection, and 9 of them have lost.

    That’s a ~67% win rate for incumbent presidents, which isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either, and with a terrible sample size.

    • njm1314@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      3
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      4 months ago

      67% is massive what are you talking about? When you were gearing up for it I thought you were going to give away lower number and then you said that holy crap. Now I’m even more convinced he should still run.