Now you’ve got NC as a Lean D, five R toss-ups, and three more traditionally safe Rs in Kansas, S.Carolina, and Nebraska all polling near the margin of error?
In a way this is encouraging… In another it’s a travesty it’s close… I also don’t believe any polls anymore I’ve been burned before by stupid American voters
I mean, they can be useful to a degree. Seeing a race polling at 60/40 means something different than one at 51/49.
But there’s a plethora of one-offs that go far astray just to get attention. Iowa going to Harris by 5-pts. Trump winning NY and California. Other silly bullshit.
As a general rule, better to take the average of polls than any single one. And to consider to margin of error, rather than accepting a guy with a 1% advantage is the default winner
American democracy is vestigial on a good day. Incumbents are secured through all sorts of ratfvckery, from mass voter disenfranchisement and constraints on voting sites to insidious smear campaigns and October Surprises to court ordered halts of vote counts.
If you’re opposed to saying ‘ratfuckery’ to the point of self censoring, why wouldn’t you just choose another word instead of projecting that word on everyone anyway?
Don’t bring this self censoring capitulation to Lemmy. I left other platforms to not be told how I am allowed to speak, don’t let this one end the same
It’s not about how much they agree with, it’s how they vote. They’ll break the important ties, and give control of how congress is run back to dems. Importantly, this is leadership and how committees are run and organized and what they focus on.
For example, Congress should be sending out subpoenas ever day over handling of the epstein files. Instead the party in power is happy to protect Trump.
In the aftermath of a razor-thin 213–214 vote in the House of Representatives, a familiar explanation began to circulate online, a theory that attacked the Democratic Party, leadership, and congressional members for failing to keep a single member of their party in line. The resolution that passed by a single Democrat voting in favor of it was framed as an effort to end U.S. military involvement in Iran. With margins that tight, every decision becomes magnified to people outside of Congress, and this one was no exception. Only one Democrat, Representative Jared Golden of Maine, broke ranks and voted with Republicans. In a chamber where the majority is measured in just a handful of seats, that single vote was enough to determine the outcome.
Almost immediately, the focus shifted away from the broader dynamics of the vote and onto the individual and the Democratic Party. Golden and DNC failure became the story. For many observers, this was not simply a case of a moderate Democrat voting differently from his party. It was something some people believed had become all too familiar, something that seemed to fit a pattern they had seen before. At a critical moment in Congress, a widely supported policy was at stake, and a single member from the party that’s supposed to be the opposition party stepped forward and voted against their own party’s interest and voted with their opposition instead.
…
The term and theory of the “rotating villain” are relatively new, emerging from online political discourse over the past several years, but the frustration they capture among the people is nothing new. At its core, the theory argues that party leadership, particularly within the Democratic Party as it is most often applied today, allows or even relies upon a small number of dissenting members to block legislation that leadership does not truly intend to pass. In this theoretical version of events, these members serve a functional role. They absorb public backlash, they provide a visible explanation for failure, and in doing so, they shield the broader party from having to fully account for the gap between popular opinion, Democratic promises, and the results.
…
The persistence of this belief is itself a signal to the Democrats and Americans in general that a significant portion of the public no longer trusts that stated policy goals align with actual legislative intent. It suggests that voters perceive a gap between rhetoric and reality that cannot be explained away by procedural complexity alone. Whether or not the “villain” is truly rotating by design, the frustration that fuels the theory is grounded in real experiences of political disappointment among the electorate.
I get this. And the vote that broke the government closure is probably a good example also.
I think the difference between this and what I’m saying is the DNC is still in power here. They allow these congressmen to go “rogue”. Not saying it’s OK, but I’d rather DNC have the power in the senate than the Republicans. Having 51 is a massive amount of control in the senate.
I’m optimistic they would use this power for good. By the “rotating villain” theory would very much still be a thing.
That’s the thing, they won’t use their power for good. They will be stifled by “the high road” “looking forward, healing”, a random parliamentarian decision, the SCOTUS is in the way. Let’s also not forget that there ALWAYS seems to be just a slim margin and the constant flip flopping and party betrayals that the person you are responding to just explained.
Democratic leadership is already SECRETLY meeting with a known foreign agent that has committed a coup and treason against the United States (Kushner). Kushner is not in any way a government official and does not have any legal legislative power. Nancy Pelosi just stated her support for Trump’s war in Iran and the Democrats are united in taking down PROGRESSIVE LEFT CANDIDATES.
TIRED OF THE CIRCUS, AND GETTING REALLY TIRED OF YOU BLUE MAGAS
There’s no shortage of Dems in the US Senate who fully agree with Fetterman’s politics, but do a better job of keeping their cards to the chest.
If he flipped Republican, he’d be the same cantankerous fuck voting the same way on every issue. He’d just be their problem instead of Schumer’s.
That said… it’s truly crazy how much territory Republicans are forced to defend this year. They were supposed to have, at best, two flippable states this year, with a bunch of difficult Dem holds.
Now you’ve got NC as a Lean D, five R toss-ups, and three more traditionally safe Rs in Kansas, S.Carolina, and Nebraska all polling near the margin of error?
Could be a 2008 wipeout if they’re not careful.
In a way this is encouraging… In another it’s a travesty it’s close… I also don’t believe any polls anymore I’ve been burned before by stupid American voters
I mean, they can be useful to a degree. Seeing a race polling at 60/40 means something different than one at 51/49.
But there’s a plethora of one-offs that go far astray just to get attention. Iowa going to Harris by 5-pts. Trump winning NY and California. Other silly bullshit.
As a general rule, better to take the average of polls than any single one. And to consider to margin of error, rather than accepting a guy with a 1% advantage is the default winner
With how things have been going, I’d expect them to lose every single seat. But maybe I have too much faith in humanity.
American democracy is vestigial on a good day. Incumbents are secured through all sorts of ratfvckery, from mass voter disenfranchisement and constraints on voting sites to insidious smear campaigns and October Surprises to court ordered halts of vote counts.
This isn’t even limited to red states.
If you’re opposed to saying ‘ratfuckery’ to the point of self censoring, why wouldn’t you just choose another word instead of projecting that word on everyone anyway?
Don’t bring this self censoring capitulation to Lemmy. I left other platforms to not be told how I am allowed to speak, don’t let this one end the same
Old habit intended to avoid the anti-vulgarity automated admins of other communities.
3@+ |\/|y @22
How embarassingly immature
Texas too
Yeah LTE is currently saying blexas is a possibility, I hope it’ll happen
It’s not about how much they agree with, it’s how they vote. They’ll break the important ties, and give control of how congress is run back to dems. Importantly, this is leadership and how committees are run and organized and what they focus on.
For example, Congress should be sending out subpoenas ever day over handling of the epstein files. Instead the party in power is happy to protect Trump.
The “Rotating Villain” Theory: Why Legislative Failure Feels Intentional in Modern American Politics
…
…
I get this. And the vote that broke the government closure is probably a good example also.
I think the difference between this and what I’m saying is the DNC is still in power here. They allow these congressmen to go “rogue”. Not saying it’s OK, but I’d rather DNC have the power in the senate than the Republicans. Having 51 is a massive amount of control in the senate.
I’m optimistic they would use this power for good. By the “rotating villain” theory would very much still be a thing.
That’s the thing, they won’t use their power for good. They will be stifled by “the high road” “looking forward, healing”, a random parliamentarian decision, the SCOTUS is in the way. Let’s also not forget that there ALWAYS seems to be just a slim margin and the constant flip flopping and party betrayals that the person you are responding to just explained.
Democratic leadership is already SECRETLY meeting with a known foreign agent that has committed a coup and treason against the United States (Kushner). Kushner is not in any way a government official and does not have any legal legislative power. Nancy Pelosi just stated her support for Trump’s war in Iran and the Democrats are united in taking down PROGRESSIVE LEFT CANDIDATES.
TIRED OF THE CIRCUS, AND GETTING REALLY TIRED OF YOU BLUE MAGAS
Again, I don’t disagree with any of this. But it’s also not counter to what I was saying.
The DNC is a fundraising committee to elect the President. Ken Martin is not going to have any power in the Senate, regardless of how Fetterman votes.