Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is perhaps the top contender to be Kamala Harris’s running mate. But Shapiro would be an awful selection, with a history of alienating and antagonizing core party constituencies and caving to pressure on major issues.
  • pjwestin@lemmy.world
    41·
    5 months ago

    Only one poll has Harris with a large lead, most polls conducted at about the same time show Trump with a slight lead, and the Five Thirty-Eight average has them in a statistical tie. Seems much more likely that the one poll is an outlier rather than Harris suddenly gaining a 10 point lead in a matter of days. Also, while the leaders of the Uncommitted movement may support Biden in the general, that doesn’t mean that they speak for the entire Muslim population of Michigan, and on the ground reporting indicates they definitely don’t.

    I’m not going to withhold my vote over a Shapiro pick, but I think there are a lot of people in Dearborn who might feel differently. Harris is a part of the Biden administration, so if she wants to win back Muslim Americans, she’s going to need to show she differs from Biden on Gaza. Shapiro says the opposite.

    Anyway, I’m getting a lot of conjecture and opinion here, but not a lot of data, so I think I’m gonna leave it at this.

    • Maggoty@lemmy.world
      23·
      5 months ago

      The only polls with trump in the lead are SoCal and Redfield who always skew right. Like I said above, everything else runs equal to Harris lead.

      Which is why the polling averages look like this.

      And in your own article, about Biden, from April, they say they’d vote for Biden against Trump.

      You’re running away because you shot your mouth off and you’re just now realizing the data doesn’t actually support you.

      Edit to add - imgur threw an NSFW warning on it… That’s hilarious.

      • pjwestin@lemmy.world
        41·
        5 months ago

        JFC, I guess I’m breaking the data down for you:

        Public Opinion Strategies (7/23-7/29): Harris: 45% Trump 45%

        Morning Consult (7/24-7/28): Harris: 53% Trump 42% (This is a HUGE outlier)

        SoCal Research (7/25-7/26): Harris: 46% Trump: 49%

        Redfield and Winton Strategies (7/22-7/24): Harris: 41% Trump: 44%

        Glengariff Group (7/22-7/24): Harris: 42% Trump: 41% (Only other poll with Harris having a slight lead, and it’s within the margin of error)

        Emerson (7/22-7/24): Harris: 49% Trump: 51% (Though this one does have them tried if you add in third parties)

        So, when you said, “You must not have looked at the polling recently. She’s ahead in Michigan,” (and by the way, dont think I didnt catch that goalpost move with, “equal to Harris lead”) that wasn’t really true; she’s ahead in one of the 3 latest polls (by a margin so large it seems like a polling mistake), and she’s only ahead in two of the six polls done in the last month. You are right though, the 538 Average does have her up by 2.2%, but again, that’s probably mostly because one poll is giving her a ten point lead, which is a huge outlier from the rest of the data.

        Anyway, is the data good enough for you yet, guy who demands data but only cites a signal polling average throughout his grand assertions about Shapiro, Harris, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan? Have I finally given you enough proof to meet your rigorous evidentiary standards? Standards which you yourself will not meet? Well, I actually don’t care. Here’s a bunch of quotes from the article you think proves, “they,” will vote for Biden:

        “If it came down to Trump and Joe Biden, I will vote for Trump. Because it doesn’t get worse than Joe Biden,” a man named Salah told me.

        I’ve now come to understand the incandescent rage many feel toward Biden. And in Dearborn, I heard a lot more than distaste for him. I heard many who fully believe that Donald Trump will fight for them more than Joe Biden—and plan to take that belief to the ballot box in November.

        “What do they say? ‘What are they going to do, vote for the guy that banned Arabs?’ And the answer is yes,” Amer Zahr, a Palestinian American comedian and Dearborn local, told me at one of the city’s many Yemeni cafés one afternoon… “Imagine thinking it’s a good argument to say to a community that has lost 30,000 people, ‘Watch out for the guy that’s going to ban you.’ You’re really asking me whether I’m going to take a ban or a genocide? I’ll take a ban.”

        I asked Hammoud. How does he square support for someone who was widely seen as favorable to the Israeli government? “Biden is deeply committed to Zionism, a true believer, not acting on the whims of some lobby. That scares me a lot more,” Hammoud said.

        The truth is Ahmed was one of the only Arabs I could find in Dearborn who openly admitted they actually planned to vote for Biden in November. I spent much of my time there immersed in the city’s café culture, and the more I talked to people, the more I saw the full extent of what was happening in Dearborn.

        I did manage to find one person who voted for Biden in the primary, a student named Shreya. But she’s already starting to change her mind. “I’m thinking about it now, and I’m not sure I want to vote anymore,” she said. “We only have bad options. And now I’m thinking uncommitted is a better option too. I can’t support what’s going on with Palestine,” she said. “The easiest choice now feels like voting uncommitted.”

        BOY, I SURE WAS WRONG ABOUT THIS ARTICLE, WASN’T I?

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          23·
          5 months ago

          The article from months ago, about Biden? Yeah… Sure.

          You really do have a habit of ignoring any point that’s inconvenient to you. So I’ll leave you to read my previous post again.

          • pjwestin@lemmy.world
            3·
            5 months ago

            Wow, what a great point. Except the context I brought the article up in was, “This is the baggage Harris inherents as a member of the Biden administration, she needs to distance herself from Biden’s position in Israel if she wants to win Michigan, this makes Shapiro a very bad choice.” So, what Muslim Americans were saying about Biden 3 months ago is actually very relevant given that context, and it’s not a great point.

            But thanks for, “You really do have a habit of ignoring any point that’s inconvenient to you.” Watching you ignore your misinterpretation of Harris’ Michigan polls, misunderstanding that entire article, and that you’ve still provided no evidence to support any of your assertions, that legit made me LOL. Anyway, as someone else in this thread said, once it had become clear you had no idea what you’re talking about, “We’re done here.”

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
              12·
              5 months ago

              If you want to talk about that why not any of the articles published in the last week about it? Why an article from months ago colored by Biden being the candidate?

              • pjwestin@lemmy.world
                21·
                5 months ago

                Because you claimed that the Uncommitted voters would still fall behind Biden in the general, and that article very clearly shows many Muslim Americans would not. But you’re right, there have been a lot of articles written in the last week about how Harris is trying to win back the Muslim groups that Biden lost. Those articles are also great examples of why Shapiro, who once said Palestinians are, “too battle-minded," for peace, is a bad VP pick.