Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is perhaps the top contender to be Kamala Harris’s running mate. But Shapiro would be an awful selection, with a history of alienating and antagonizing core party constituencies and caving to pressure on major issues.
That’s … An interesting take. They certainly aren’t going to flip a deep red or blue state. But they can absolutely swing a close race. Which is the case here.
It’s not really a take, it’s the statistical fact of the last 2+ decades and has been the consensus among political analysts and strategists for almost as long.
There was a long discussion about this on the 538 podcast last week, and four years ago, and eight years ago. It may be worth a point in a give home state, but even that is less than likely because of how polarized the electorate is and low-information voters have less of an opinion about their state-level leaders than they do nation politicians.
It all comes down to the takeaway being that you’re better off picking a good messenger who is charismatic and can do unfriendly media hits well. That’s the strategy unless you need to balance something out of the ordinary like Obama did when he picked Biden in 2008.
It’s been a discussion for that long. But it’s been a hot take just as long with evidence flying both directions. I’m going to stay firmly on the side of common sense. And point out that someone winning statewide elections ought to be able to campaign in that state.
There is absolutely not “evidence flying in both directions.” We’re done here.