Polls are crap
It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise
But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is
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This one?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Show Biden behind, but not down to 20%. Why lie about that?
That page looks to only show polls and has the actual model paywalled?
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That’s from July 3rd…
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The same source shows that Biden is up 2% since the 3rd, and a bit more over the past 10 days.
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Where does Silver publish his model?
The results are on a paid blog. At least I’m not aware of it being available anywhere for free. He posts on formerly Twitter, though.
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Oh wow, I didn’t know he left. I’m going to trust 538 much less.
Just take 538 in aggregate.
Nate Silver still forecasts. You’re not losing anything.