• growsomethinggood ()@reddthat.com
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      5
      ·
      4 months ago

      Yeah, I’m suspicious that at least Warren isn’t on that list given her performance in the last primary was higher than several of the folks there. Bernie could be more polarizing (and is also quite old, if that’s the problem) but obviously I’d be interested in his statistics as well.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        4
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        edit-2
        4 months ago

        Yeah, be cautious of anyone that sources polls with screenshots and not links.

        I looked into Data for Progress, and it seems like they sold out last election.

        https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/us/politics/data-for-progress-democrats.html

        Party establishment started favoring them because they were good at coming up with polls that led to donations. So they’ve moved away from pushing for progress, and now push polls that defend the establishment.

        A few years ago the founder was forced out of the company because it came to light he was betting on elections and using the company to try and effect the races so he’d win his bets…

        And trying to recruit his employees for a straw donor scheme…

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_McElwee#Data_for_Progress

        So them putting out a shady poll like this, is actually an improvement for the company over what they were doing in 2022…

        • ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          4 months ago

          My initial post was saying to wait for high quality polling data and stop having panic attacks over one debate. The downside risk to Biden dropping out is real and everyone is acting like it’ll be a simple situation where everyone unites around their preferred candidate.

          I didn’t vote for Biden in any primary but I’m not convinced a convention where they nominate (for instance) Harris, Newsom, or Whitmer would be anything but chaos that angered at least some constituencies and led to more Republicans winning up and down the ballot. Everyone is assuming things at this point and I’m saying “Wait to see if this even moves the polls.”

          • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            4 months ago

            high quality polling data

            What does that have to do with Data for Progress?

            Even before they sold out, the whole point was cheap and fast, not high quality…

            • ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              1
              arrow-down
              2
              ·
              4 months ago

              I meant that’s all we have at the moment so be patient and give it a week. I know Data for Progress is a bit of a mess. The last CEO got run off for essentially insider trading on prediction markets.

    • ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      2
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      4 months ago

      I have bad news about who a convention of Biden loyalists will nominate regardless of what horrors Israel does. Or a committee of wise party elders (which doesn’t exist), for that matter. The time to challenge Biden was before he won every primary with like 80% of the vote.

      There’s just not a realistic way that I can see where the convention nominates a progressive option. Even just replacing Biden with someone younger and the exact same policies would be nearly impossible.

        • ShittyBeatlesFCPres@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          4 months ago

          I responded to another post but I don’t think we have high quality post-debate data yet. Most pollsters are affiliated with one party. That’s who pays them for internal polls and where they make their money. The few independent, non-profit poll organizations haven’t released anything I’ve seen. (And there’s like 6 news organizations left that can afford to conduct polls.)

          Either way, though, you’re better off with a poll average than any one poll. We’re a few days away from knowing how likely voters responded to the debate.