The event throws into question the perceived heightened accuracy of betting markets like Poymarket over conventional polls.

https://archive.is/Qc8RH

  • qt0x40490FDB@lemmy.ml
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    3 months ago

    If you know other people are over confident you can bet against them. The null expectation is that every candidate has equal odds. If the market highly favors one candidate, and you don’t think there is any good reason to favor that candidate, then bet against the market. You can make money betting against over confidence alone.