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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • Many effects took place. That said I think you’re wrong about the speed of the effects. There were quick and sizeable effects. However Russia simply reshuffled the economy. Russia, or any country, doesn’t need to export or import anything if they’re self sufficient. They can replace the lost income from those exports with public investment into something else. For example military production and soldiers. And that’s what they did. Now Russia isn’t self sufficient but China has filled the gap for their high tech import needs and is taking Russian fossil fuels in exchange. So is India. Given that Russia has both markets for its export and sources for its necessary imports, I don’t believe there’s any further effects from sanctions we could expect. That’s how I read the tea leaves anyway.



  • Yeah, it’s comparing apples to oranges to say there’s lots of apples. Sure there’s lots of apples.

    Then there’s the thumbnail chart hinting something is crashing when that’s not happening. So far they’ve demonstrated significant resilience against the sanctions we’ve imposed and their economy has remained stable and returned to growth. If they don’t run out of labor and natural resources, they can keep this going for a very long time. I’m not saying this because I want them to be able to. I’m saying it because I’m disappointed at the propaganda in our politics and media that lead us to believe we can crash Russia’s economy. This created unrealistic expectations and it probably contributed to the lesser support ro weapons delivery which has led us to the status quo we face today.