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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • I agree, I’m sure those kind of manipulations happen all the time. Some are intentionally inflating the price and sometimes investors/fund managers have just drank the Kool-aid and are investing in ways that don’t make sense given the fundamentals. So yeah, stock prices can become completely unmoored from fundamentals because these days the money is in buying and selling, not dividends. In fact, I’d guess that stock prices are unmoored from fundamentals more often than not — when they’re high they’re too high and when they’re low they’re too low due to investor sentiment. But I remain somewhat confident that over the very long term (meaning decades) stock prices have some correlation to fundamentals, so they can’t remain artificially inflated forever. Sooner or later someone will make a killing popping the bubble.


  • Stock prices are set by what people think stocks are worth. Buying a stock is a bet that it will become more valuable in the future (and/or pay dividends). Even with the rise of algorithmic trading, those algorithms are betting the stocks are will rise in value. In theory the cost should be related to the fundamentals of the stock like the company’s revenue, but in practice they are also set by investor’s opinions about the stock’s future price.

    So what causes stocks to go down is people thinking that stocks will go down, and selling before they lose any more money.

    In the case of the AI stock bubble, it’s hard to know what will cause investors to say “this stock is likely to drop on value, or at least not grow as quickly as other investments I could make.” The fact that most AI companies are burning cash and not getting much revenue out of it hasn’t dampened the excitement yet, so I guess investors still believe there’s a way forward that will result in more revenue. Or at least they believe the hype cycle isn’t coming to an end so they’re holding on while the prices go up and hope to sell before their holdings lose too much value. It won’t pop until something deflates the expectations of enough investors to start a sell-off. What’s that going to be? Who knows. It might just be a herd mentality thing where a few people begin to sell and more people follow suit.



  • I got lucky: my back pain was from tight hamstrings and sitting in a desk chair for too long, then doing heavy deadlifts. I WFH and get out of my chair as much as possible and I’m religious about stretching my hamstrings, and the back pain is gone even when I deadlift.

    So everyone with back pain should figure out why — sometimes it’s preventable. (Other times not so much ☹️)




  • I was wondering recently if the idea of opportunity cost is the same for governments that can print their own money versus all other entities. I’m not entirely clear on how the that automaker bailouts were financed but would that money even have existed if they hadn’t used it for the bailout? It’s not like the government was going to create that amount of money and put it in a savings account.

    A more appropriate way to look at it might be whether the money earned more than it cost the government to service the debt. IIRC servicing government debt is not inflation-adjusted, so it’s probably more informative to compare it to the cost of the debt not inflation adjusted-growth.

    But this gets pretty weird since it’s not how finance works for entities that cannot print their own money.









  • i think that a lot of the value of art comes from the effort.

    Many things that we do are only worthwhile because of the difficulty.

    I think this is one of the biggest disconnects between people who create art and people who don’t (me). I don’t understand this sentiment at all. I don’t care how much effort a piece of art took or what the process was, I care about the output. But I know lots of people who create art and this stuff about the process and difficulty really seems to matter to them. Which is fine, they are entitled to like what they like, but I just don’t get it.

    I don’t like AI art because it steals from artists and looks like crap, but the fact that it’s easy doesn’t matter to me.

    I wonder if this is part of the disconnect between artists and AI boosters (I am neither).