Summary via https://bsky.app/profile/frhoffmann.bsky.social/post/3llny3bzhrc25
New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me.
We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma.
In short, European elites aim to uphold three objectives: credible and effective deterrence against Russia, nuclear nonproliferation, and strategic stability (understood as low incentives for nuclear first use).
But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.
This means Europe faces unavoidable trade-offs in the years ahead.
In navigating this trilemma, we argue that Europe should choose credible and effective deterrence against Russia and nuclear nonproliferation.
We are aware that reneging on strategic stability and accepting a degree of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations entails assuming genuine nuclear risks.
The alternatives, however, would be even more dangerous.
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