One extremely important thing to note about 2024 turnout—it was only down in uncompetitive states. Turnout was, on average, higher in swing states compared to 2020. Democrats did not ‘stay home’ in the states where it mattered and you should ignore anyone trying to explain Harris’s loss that way.
This is my take away too. The top of the ticket underperformed relative to the rest. In Pennsylvania Harris lost by 2 point, but Casey only seems to be down half a point for retaining his senate seat and that is headed for recount. The Pa state house held its single seat democratic majority.
The only explanation that seems reasonable to me is that the election hinged on the large center of mostly low information voters deciding that Trump bringing the circus back to Washington was less bad than their grocery bill(I am NOT saying they are correct to blame the current administration, just that they are).
tl;dr [that Carville quote]