

I’m hoping this insane future booked shortage causes the consumer electronics industry to crash due to lack of parts which in turn should cause the AI industry to crash when no one is buying new tech nor fat AI subscriptions.
It already has to be affecting small to medium businesses significantly when even laptop procurement has tripled in price and you’re spending a ton of money for enterprise AI access.




The thing that kicked off 2007 was that CDOs ended being largely made up of crappy mortgage bonds which caused their massive trillions in debt “value” to dissappear when the underlying bonds failed which was tied to people not paying their mortgage on crappy adjustable mortgage loans.
After getting bailed out with a shit ton of tax money, the banks agreed not to repeat the same mistake by ensuring their trillions of debt trading doesn’t depend on a single point of failure, so they’ve diversified it across multiple markets (like how a CDO was otherwise supposed to work)
This type of warning shows up every now and then because the vulnerability is still there (since nothing really changed), but its much harder to knock it down without causing some type of collapse in multiple areas first.
Right now, I think its estimated that private credit makes up about 40% of their investments into the AI boom, which is 1 trillion dollars exact. That’s proportionally less than what CDOs were with mortgage bonds, but it’s still entirely possible that a couple of hits in some businesses sectors could collapse the system.
Iran actually succeeded in affecting multiple supply chains due to their strait closure, including AI, so if they continue on that path it might actually happen.