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Joined 3 年前
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Cake day: 2023年7月14日

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  • Plausible premise, and it will be interesting to see what happens.

    Two things though:

    1. I don’t trust any big tech companies to have their head on straight when it comes to AI in software development
    2. Seems like “2x the time” is a cop-out argument. Hands on keyboards is surely not a limiting factor when you’re a 10$bn+ company. I imagine it’s more a problem of coordination and source-of-truth. Those problems don’t go away with AI. If anything, they get worse. Neither the iOS nor Android app is the “authoritative” version, so are they going to have AI copying back and forth between the two, over and over? Seems like the same kind of “localized model collapse” problem lots of companies are sprinting towards.






  • but I suspect they are still going to be bigger than most can comfortably host for time being

    ARM and CXMT both have the potential to change this situation rather dramatically.

    ARM: The RAM/VRAM divide is kind of a legacy thing at this point, doing more harm than good in the x86 (desktop OS) space, but ARM doesn’t have the same baggage.

    CXMT: We know the DRAM cartel have previously engaged in price-fixing, and the current shortage looks suspiciously similar to their old behavior. When confronted by a new challenger, they might be forced to actually compete.








  • I wouldn’t say Kagi has “moved to become an AI company”.

    They host some open weight models, which you can use with your subscription (which hasn’t increased in price or dropped features since they added AI access), but you’re not forced to use AI ever, and they’re not collecting your searches or prompts to feed into training.

    They’ve taken a pretty skeptical stance on AI from the start. You can disable AI features completely, so you don’t even accidentally use them. But even if you leave them enabled, you have to opt into invoking AI by ending your query with a question mark.

    Edit: Also, they downrank content that has been flagged as AI generated: https://help.kagi.com/kagi/features/slopstop.html


  • Well, “should you”? Only you can decide that. You only get the one life, you know. It would suck to spend it only doing things because they’re “prudent”.

    It seems like you’re asking for market predictions here, based on the AI and outsourcing aspects. Nobody knows what the future holds. But we can look at the past and present.

    Historically, companies — both individually, and the industry as a whole — tend to oscillate between:

    • “oh my god, knowledgeable people are so expensive, I don’t need someone with deep understanding, I just need more output” and
    • ”oh fuck, I am drowning in output that nobody understands, I desperately need knowledgeable people”

    For all the AI corpos’ talk about a revolutionary change in the way we think about work and employment, it all looks very familiar right now.

    Historically, these moments, where everyone seems to agree that they want more hands on keyboards rather than more brains on call… tend to be the worst time to freelance.

    It’s a race to the bottom, and you’ll probably be so busy spinning plates that you won’t be able to make any long-term strategic decisions about what you wanna learn and do next.

    If you can, I’d look for a stable corpo job that you can firewall to 9-5, and keep your options open. Watch the market, and — more importantly — find something that you like, so you don’t have to ask internet strangers what to do with your life again.