• 0 Posts
  • 409 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

help-circle


  • The US is showing up with 4 times as many cruise missiles as Iran has total launch systems, on day one. The US has a working supply chain to bring more. Iran won’t have a supply chain from anywhere, and construction won’t be an option without materials, which would also be targeted.

    Iran has no chance of standing up to the US military, that’s never really been a question. The only thing they can, and probably will do, is cause some losses to the Navy and any land troops. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, the US will take serious casualties if it goes into Iran. That won’t be enough to stop the invasion, or really even slow it down. Internal politics would be a far more likely reason to stop any open invasion.



  • Iran wouldn’t blow through a serious fraction of US air defense. The main threats from Iran would be torpedo’s and water based mines from hidden/small launch sites. Their drone attacks would probably land a couple hits early on, due to sheer volume, but they wouldn’t get to launch waves like Russia is able to in Ukraine. There wouldn’t be enough launch sites remaining after the first two weeks.

    The bigger issues would be what other countries do in reaction. China and Russia at the top of that list.